All the Right Reasons, All the Wrong Results
December is my favorite time of year to look back on previous expert predictions and remind myself that nobody knows anything.
Take the price of Bitcoin, for example. On Dec. 31, 2024, Bitcoin was $92,000, and CNBC published an article, The boldest bitcoin predictions for 2025 are in — and most see prices doubling to $200,000.
They all reasoned that Bitcoin’s price would skyrocket because:
Trump’s crypto policies would create a more favorable regulatory environment
Demand would increase thanks to ETFs and institutional adoption.
Large existing purchasers like MicroStrategy would match or exceed their purchases from the previous year.
To some extent, all those things happened, but that didn’t stop Bitcoin from being the only asset class in 2025 to lose money (chart as of 12/16/2025).
This isn’t to pick on Bitcoin. The same thing happens with every asset. Just look at the chart below comparing the Consensus S&P 500 Estimates with the Actual Returns from 2018-2025.
Not even close. In any given year, consensus forecasts for the S&P generally predict average returns, even though that is one of the least likely outcomes. Since 1950, there have only been six years in which the S&P 500 returned between 5% and 10%.
That’s why, rather than relying on confident predictions, we focus on building investment plans that hold up across a wide range of outcomes, especially the ones nobody sees coming.
Personal note:
Last week, we held our TSA Wealth Management Christmas dinner.
It was an amazing time, and I’m so thankful for everyone in this picture.
When it comes to writing about investments, the disclaimers are important. Past performance is not indicative of future returns, my opinions are not necessarily those of TSA Wealth Management, an SEC-registered investment advisor, and this is not intended to be personalized legal, accounting, or tax advice etc.
For additional disclaimers associated with TSA Wealth Management please visit https://tsawm.com/disclosure or find TSA Wealth Management's Form CRS at https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/323123
I enjoy your mssgs. Even better when it includes your staff. Enjoy the holidays