Weekly Notes:
March 6 | Iran, Uncertainty, and Why We’re Staying the Course - If you are asking whether to move to cash until the Iran conflict settles. The answer is no. Historically, the S&P 500 is positive 83% of the time in the year following a major geopolitical event — and panic-selling is rarely the right move.
March 13 | The Eternal Promise of Easy Money - Private credit was the hot trade for years — until the blowups started. A reminder that chasing high-return, hard-to-understand investments usually ends the same way, no matter how convincing the story sounds at the time.
March 20 | Everyone Thinks They’ll Get Out in Time - An AI meme coin, a derivatives bet on the Second Coming, and shady micro-cap IPOs walk into a bar. Three stories that illustrate how blurry the line between investing and gambling has become — and why smart people keep ending up on the wrong side of it.
March 27 | The Price Is the Risk - Gold doubled in two years and got labeled a “safe haven.” Then it dropped 20% in three weeks. When an asset surges because people are nervous, the risk isn’t the geopolitics — it’s the price you’re paying to get in.
Quote We Love:
“Investing in an unknowable future as an agnostic is a daunting prospect, but if foreknowledge is elusive, investing as if you know what’s coming is close to nuts.” - Howard Marks
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